Tuesday, January 24, 2006

Elevator Pitch...

Dave Cowan has a great post on what he expects to see in an elevator pitch. One thing I think he should have added is a rule to include a direct comparison to the next best alternative. Without this, there is no reference point. Without the reference point, how can you know what you're doing is any better? IMHO, this is key.

Its in his example, just not one of his rules.

My perspective on this comes right out of Geoffrey Moore's classic, Crossing the Chasm. I've gone to the pages on the elevator pitch so many times I can tell you without checking that it starts on page 154. There, he outlines a silly little exercise that mechanically creates an elevator pitch for you.

Simply fill in the blanks:
  1. For (target customer)
  2. Who are dissatisfied with (the current market alternative)
  3. Our product is a (new product category)
  4. That provides (key problem-solving capability)
  5. Unlike, (the next best alternative).
  6. We have assembled (whole product feature that creates the compelling reason to buy).

Simple as that.

I've done a fair amount of consulting for start ups and, without exception, the ones that are really messed up don't have a elevator pitch. They might think they have one, but it's probably not compelling (vitamin not an aspirin). That's the easiest kind of problem to fix. Just make it more compelling.

Easier said than done, right? Yes, but, once you know what you ought to be doing, its easier to prioritize your scarce resources based on the extent to which they contribute to fulfilling the value proposition described in the elevator pitch.

Assuming it's compelling, another common problem is for there to be 2, 3 or more different elevator pitches, depending on which prospects you're talking to. That's a company that, on the surface might seems successful (because they can sell to different kinds of customers), but ultimately will run into a ditch when it can't keep up with the demands of trying to execute on what might be 2, 3 or more different strategies.

Even worse than having a different pitch for different prospects is having 2, 3 or more pitches depending on which VP you talk to. That's always a sign of trouble.

Whenever I work with companies to help them figure out their strategy, I always start with developing an elevator pitch. I'm never surprised by the confusion it can sometimes cause.

I start by getting all the executives in a room and have them fill in the blanks above and see what they each come up with. I've done this about 20 times and I can now almost predict how successful the company is going to be, not by the answers to the questions, but rather by the consistency of the answers.

If the CEO says the product is for a CIO and the VP Engineering says its for sys admins, you're in trouble.

If the VP Engineering says the competition comes from systems integrators, but the VP Marketing says Cisco, you're in trouble.

If the sales guys says the customers buy because of price, it doesn't matter what anyone else says, you're in trouble.

It usually doesn’t start with everyone being on the same page, but getting people to discuss their choice of words reveals a lot about how the strategy is perceived internally. Sometimes these discussion can take days. In fact, I've witnessed management teams arguing about a single word in an elevator pitch for weeks. It is less filling? Or does it taste great?

Other times when the company seems to have their act together, even if they've never worked on an elevator pitch, the answers are remarkably consistent.

Everyone knows, for example, that the customer is the VP of Service, they compete directly with PeopleSoft, and they win business because their product integrates best with VoIP.

I completely agree that having an elevator pitch is essential, but it's just as important that everyone on the team knows what it is and are lined up behind it. You can always change the words. And often do, as circumstances change. But if the team isn't all pulling in the same direction, none of the words matter.

Sincere apologies, Google...

Got some quick feedback on my post about Google setting Third Party Cookies.

Thanks to Danny Sullivan at Search Engine Watch (via John Battelle) who set me straight with his post revealing that its Firefox prefetching the first listing in the search results. Google takes advantage of the Firefox/Mozilla feature that prefetches the first search result.

Clever feature I guess. But I'm going to turn it off.

Google says in their FAQ on prefetching that:
With prefetching enabled, you may end up with cookies and web pages in your web browser's cache from web sites that you did not click on since prefetching happens automatically when you view Google search results pages. You can delete these files by clearing your browser's cache and cookies
Apparently, this feature was launched back in March and discussed here at news.com. I guess I just missed it....

Monday, January 23, 2006

Google and Third Party Cookies...

I remove my cookies every so often just to reset my click stream with sites I visit. Well, today when I did that, I also changed the settings in Firefox that determines how long to keep a cookie.
I have to say that I was completely shocked to see that when I use Google, some of my keywords cause cookies to be written with third party domains! For example, when I search for 'cars' I'm asked to set a cookie for www.cars.com.

Since it is a Google page, and there isn't any banner ad this must be coming from Google.

I experimented a little with this and found some interesting behavior.
  1. When I search for 'cars' an AdWords link appeared for www.cars.com and an attempt to set a www.cars.com cookies is made.
  2. When I search for 'Amazon' an AdWords link appeared for www.amazon.com and an attempt to set an Amazon cookies is made.
  3. When I search for 'Walmart' no AdWord link appeared, but an attempt to set a Walmart cookie is made anyway.
I suspect that cars.com, Amazon and Walmart are all large advertisers and it doesn't matter if their AdWords link appears, Google still sets the cookie.

These cookies were set, even though I've always had the set cookies 'for the originating site only' check box checked. Checking that box apparently prevents third parties (like ad networks that set cookies for cross site tracking) from setting cookies, but since Google IS the originating site, they can set the cookie on behalf of their advertisers. No problem.

Technically, this may not be a 'third party cookie' since its set by the originating site, and I'm pretty sure that browsers are easily fooled into setting a third party domain cookie since it's coming in on the same TCP connection (whereas, a cookie coming from an ad insertion server would be a different TCP connection and easily identified as not from the originating site).

If this really is the case, I hope (request) that Firefox enhances their cookie management so that it checks the contents of the cookie to see if the written domain matches the domain of the originating site. This would prevent this.

There's only one word for this: Evil

I read Google's Privacy policy and there is no mention of third party cookies anywhere. I searched for more info on this and there is a forum posting at WebMasterWorld, but I can't access it.

I don't think there is any question that Google is selling third party cookies, but I would like them to be more clear about this policy.

Thursday, January 19, 2006

Shows what I know...

The rumor that sex.com was recently sold for $14 million reminded me of the time when my friend Gary Kremen asked me for some help registering some domain names.

At the time (~1993/4) there were no domain registration fees but you were limited to registering only about 25 domains (might have been ~75, can't remember exactly). Gary had a list of several hundred domain names he wanted to register and asked his friends to register them for him. On the list were things like autos.com carloan.com, mortgage.com and the now famous sex.com.

When I asked him why he wanted to do this he said matter of factly: They're going to valuable.

I told him he was crazy.

Don't know how many he actually registered, or what happened to most of them, but the sex.com saga will forever be part of Internet history. Gary's fight to get it back established a far reaching precedent for internet-related intangible property rights.

Gary's always been a man ahead of his time. Registering sex.com for free is proof positive. But if you need more evidence, the company he was running at the time was 'Full Source Software', perhaps the industries first open source software company. When he was just getting this started he told me he was going to collect a bunch of useful software off the net, compile it, organize it with documentation, write it to tape and sell them.

I told him he was crazy.

Once he sold Full Source Software, he went on to start match.com the first on-line dating site.

This time, I didn't tell him he was crazy.

Congrats Gary.

Another one bites the dust...

Fast on the heals of Nikon's announcement to discontinue production of many of their film-based cameras, Konica Minolta follows suit.

Wednesday, January 18, 2006

Blocked Reference URL and Click Fraud

I was looking over the ref URLs for the visitors to this blog the other day. Its interesting to see which keywords cause Tumbling Duke to rank high in organic search results.

There's always a fair amount of traffic coming from a Google search on 'Google Stock Units'. It turns out that the number one result from Google when searching for 'Google Stock Units' is my post.

How can that be? I checked my PageRank and it's zero. How does my post rank above the WSJ article that talks about these things? Interesting....

Anyway, I noticed that some of my log entries have a blocked ref URL and some are messages like 'No Ref For You!!' Which got me curious about how someone did that.

Quick search for Ref URL block got me to stardrifter.org and their Firefox extension that blocks the Ref URL. For privacy reasons, I now run RefControl to block my Ref URLs as well.

Now that I block Ref URLs, I'm pretty sure my AdWord click throughs will get tagged as fraudulent. I think I prefer that. I never click on Google ads since I'm usually not interested in any purchase and feel bad about wasting the advertisers money. From now on though, that will probably change.

I wonder what would happen if blocking Ref URLs was a standard feature in Firefox and IE?

Turned off Google Desktop...

I've been pretty happy with Google Desktop since I first installed it. I even upgraded to v2 a while back. I turned off all the annoying toolbar stuff, but overall it's been OK. I liked the way it could quickly find an email from the thousands I keep on my laptop.

However, recently I noticed that my performance wasn't what it used to be and I would often hear the disk seek. It's an old 533MHz P3, Win2K Pro with 512MB/11GB. Pretty wimpy by today's standards, but with 6Mbps DSL it surfs the net great, and Office 2K is just fine for me. I keep since most files on a TB file server under my desk, I've never needed super capacity on my laptop.

As I looked around for what might be the problem, I noticed that the search index was almost 2GB! More than 20% of the data on the hard drive. I never really though about how big the index ought to be, but that surprised me. Whacking that 2GB got me down below 6GB total and performance improved right away.

I didn't really want to un-install Desktop, but couldn't see suffering 99% of the time for a better 1% search experience.

When I upgrade, I'll probably put it back. But for now, I'll just do without. Although, it does have me thinking about getting one of those new fangled perpendicular recording disk drives.....

Monday, January 16, 2006

A place for my stuff...

I read today that Seagate is shipping their new 160GB perpendicular recording disk drive.

If you want to learn more about how they do this, check out this article from Hitachi. If you just want to see the nerdy flash animation, check this out.

Now I've got a bigger place for my stuff.

Saturday, January 14, 2006

Very cool Google swag...

I saw this article in the NYT today about the celebrity swag bags given to presenters, etc. at events like the Oscars and Golden Globes. Apparently, it's beginning to fall out of favor.

I used to get a ton of swag at trade shows. Most of it never made it home since I threw most of it out. But sometimes there was some cool thing that everyone wanted, like the clutch transaxel light-up yo-yo. The sad part is that everyone could tell you where to get it, but most of the time they couldn't tell you about the company that was giving it out. Talk about a waste of money. I will admit though that my kids love the superballs with the blinking LED inside.

My wife's company is a pretty big AdWords buyer and she just got some real nice swag from Google. When I first saw it I it looked like the stupid day planer you'd get from your bank or real estate broker. I thought: A day planner? How lame. As techno hip as they seem to be, surely the could have come up with something better than that.

Boy, was I wrong.

I opened it up and saw a very cool collection of PC travel accessories people actually use.

  • 128MB USB Drive
  • 4 port USB hub
  • USB light
  • Wireless travel mouse
  • VoIP earbud/mic

swag

Her IT staff wanted to buy it from her.

I went to the Google store and couldn't find it. I sure would like to know where they got it. I want one too.

Friday, January 13, 2006

Cell phone record hubbub...

I posted a few days ago about my surprise that personal phone records could be purchase for $100-$200. I predicted that we'd be hearing more about this obvious breach of privacy at the carriers. Well, it didn't take very long.

1. Sen. Schumer is introducing legislation next week to make it a crime for someone to obtain call information under false pretenses or for a wireless company employee to sell customer information.

2. Cingular and Bell South have obtained a restraining order against Data Find Solutions and 1st Source Information Specialists Inc., two firms allegedly providing cell phone records.

3. The FCC and FTC are investigating this to see if it violates private consumer information requirements.

I hope these are only the first steps.

Thursday, January 12, 2006

I wonder what Paul Simon has to say about this....

The news today that Nikon is phasing out its film-based cameras shouldn't come as news to anyone paying attention to technology trends or the habits of photographers.

This article from the NYT says that Nikon's film camera body business shrank from 16% of revenue to 3% in a single year. Even if you assume 25% revenue growth (total guess on my part), revenue dropped more than 75%, in a single year.

Wow!

Who would have thought back in 1973 that Kodachrome would still be around, but that no one really cared.

I don't follow the camera industry at all but my hunch is that Nikon, who catered to higher end photographers, was one of the last remaining manufacturers of film cameras. As predicted by Clayton Christensen, it's the most demanding user segment at the high end that's last to collapse from the introduction of disruptive technologies.

I'm not sure if the high end of the software industry has experienced this kind of collapse yet, but its coming for sure. It certainly has already occurred in the lower end. If there's any doubt, take a look at what happened at the smaller/low end players like Kana, Broadbase, Extensity, Vantive, Remedy, Scopus, Active, Crossworlds, E.piphany, ATG, etc., etc.

At the higher end, PeopleSoft and Siebel are simply two more points on the same trendline.

Will it ever stop? Not until the transformation is complete.

That's why I think the future of the Programmable Web is so bright. It's inevitable, and with a few lessons from history, we know how it will probably look.

There are a lot of smart people at Oracle and SAP that are trying to figure out what their future holds. I'm pretty sure they 'can read the writing on the wall'.

Tuesday, January 10, 2006

Salesforce.com statistic...

I read on the Salesforce.com blog that API calls account for over 40% of their total traffic!

Unbelievable.

Aside from the obvious point that over 40% of the interactions with their application don't use their website, the implications of this are significant.

The programmable web is really taking off. But still, I don't think most people recognize it.

When it does becomes obvious it will seem like it came out of nowhere, but for those of us watching, we will have seen signposts like this each and every step of the way.

Saturday, January 07, 2006

Wily+HPOV...

That's what I thought was going to happen. But Wily+CA? I'm a little disappointed....

First, because I thought that IntroScope would be a perfect fit for HPOV. Second, because CAs track record on acquisitions isn't all that great. I've always considered them to be bottom feeders and the acquirer of last resort. 6x TTM revenue isn't bad, but since they weren't profitable, I guess that's pretty good.

I think HP has a competing product so paying more than 6x was probably just a little too rich for them.

I've been watching Wily ever since they started and have been impressed by what they've been able to accomplish. They pioneered the concept of Java bytecode instrumentation (BCI) for application performance management in production environments. When I first dug into BCI, I was surprised that anyone could actually get it to work, so Wily always got high marks from me on their ability to execute technically.

On the sales side however, it sure seems like they had to work hard to get to $53M. It was widely know that they were on an IPO track, so to be honest, I thought they were already bigger than that. A $53M software company ought to be able to get to breakeven. Even if they're growing at 75%.

This simply confirms my suspicion that no one is going to be able to sell software licenses any more. I know that since Introscope was launched, several open source BCI alternatives have emerged and there's nothing quite like an open source alternative to undermine your pricing power.

At least they were able to avoid their own open source strategy. I've said before, I think this is the death knell for a software company that can't figure out any other way to get traction.

If you're starting a software company, you better keep that in mind.

Friday, January 06, 2006

Cell phone records for sale??

I read this article today that says that anyone's cell phone records can be purchased for about $400. I'm more than a little surprised by this.

How are this records gathered? Is this a massive breach of privacy by the carriers? The article says that:
Some online services might be skirting the law to obtain these phone lists, according to Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), who has called for legislation to criminalize phone record theft and use.
Might be skirting the law? Do you think? It goes on to say that:
In some cases, telephone company insiders secretly sell customers' phone-call lists to online brokers, despite strict telephone company rules against such deals, according to Schumer.

And some online brokers have used deception to get the lists from the phone companies, he said.
Given the heightened awareness to Identity Theft and the high profile cases of lost, stolen or misplaced personal information, you'd think that carriers would have taken some preventative measures to protect these call records.

I think we're going to hear more about this....

Thursday, January 05, 2006

Lightening 'Blog'

Today I read of Mark Pincus' travails trying to overcome the insidious consequences of being misquoted (malquoted, if I can coin my own sniglet) in the London Times. In what seems like an honest mistake, an ignorant, vitriolic comment on his blog was published in an article and attributed to him.

Ouch!

Instead of quoting 'Mark Pincus' Blog', they quoted 'Mark Pincus'.

What a difference a word makes.

I'm reminded of a quote attributed to Mark Twain which states:
The difference between the right word and the almost right word is the difference between lightening and the lightening bug.